The first weekend of November marks the start of the official international window, ensuring the majority of European stars will suit up for their nations. Whilst the Autumn Nations Series got underway with big wins for Scotland and New Zealand last weekend, the four other Northern teams and various touring sides will open their account on Saturday, Scotland and Australia the exception (going at it on Sunday). Six massive tests across the coming weekend, alongside numerous others between tier two nations, make up a bumper weekend of international rugby and we’ve got it all covered for you here at Off The Pine. With that in mind, I’ll provide a short run through of all the major match-ups, alongside my predictions to get you in the mood for the exciting footy ahead.
Wales vs South Africa - Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Fresh off a statement win over the All Blacks in their final test of the Rugby Championship, the Springboks kick off their Northern Tour with a heavily anticipated clash against Wales on Saturday night. It wasn’t too long ago that we were hurtling criticism at this South African side for the measly performances and dour tactics that saw them slump to three defeats on the trot, and two in a row to the Wallabies. With the 31-29 victory over New Zealand though, and playing a far more expressive style of footy to add, the hype in the world champions has been restored. Key to maintaining that outlook as the year draws to a close however, will be remaining consistent across this Tour, a feat that could prove mighty troublesome with Scotland and England still to come after Cardiff.
Injuries to Faf De Klerk and Cheslin Kolbe, alongside the decision to rest Willie Le Roux following his shocker against the All Blacks on the Gold Coast, means Rassie Erasmus has rung a couple of changes. Perhaps the most controversial however, is the return of Jesse Kriel to a starting jumper, who appears on the right wing following visa issues that rule out Sbu Nkosi. It comes as only his second start of the year, following a match in the center jersey against Georgia back in July. Another notable inclusion is Herschel Jantjes, who’ll make his first start in a green and gold jumper since the Springboks meeting with Namibia at the 2019 World Cup. In the absence of Le Roux, while he looks to refind his motivation and energy on the training ground, Damian Willemse has also been thrust into the starting team, eyeing up what could be a golden opportunity in the fullback jumper. While they will be missing some of their backline stars, this remains a very impressive Springbok side, one that offers up a daunting task for those in red on Saturday.
Despite their opponents suffering a heavy defeat to the All Blacks last Saturday, South Africa don’t have a great record when it comes to playing at the Millennium. Wales have won five of the past seven between these two proud nations, with four in a row coming on this turf. Such a record should boost hope, but there’s no doubting that triumph on Saturday remains an uphill task. Used to such problems in the past, Wayne Pivac’s side has once more been hit by a long injury list. A shoulder twinge for Alun Wyn Jones against the All Blacks was only the tip of the iceberg, the likes of Taualape Faletau, Ken Owens, Justin Tipuric, and Leigh Halfpenny all sidelined with issues. Once more that means the Welsh will be fielding a rather understrength outfit, although Dan Biggar and Loius Rees-Zammit should provide some welcome impact at first five and on the right wing. The Six Nations champions, as always, will back themselves with a full Cardiff crowd behind them, but it looks all too likely that South Africa will prove too much with such an apparent gulf in class up front.
Prediction: South Africa by 13
Scotland vs Australia - Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Sunday’s sole test match could well be the most anticipated of the weekend. Pitting together two in-form nations, Scotland and Australia promise fireworks when they meet at Murrayfield. Despite having won five consecutive tests though, the Wallabies tour hasn’t quite gone to plan thus far. Central to the controversy was the delayed decision of Quade Cooper, Sean McMahon, and Samu Kerevi to remain with their Japanese clubs despite having been selected and pledging their allegiance to country over the coming month. All key to Dave Rennie’s plans, such departures have left a whole to fill. But when one door closes, another opens, and it appears that door looks to have re-opened for Australian stalwart, Kurtley Beale. Having clocked up 92 tests across his international career, the last of which came at the 2019 World Cup, his return has caught plenty of attention. Enjoying his club rugby with Racing 92, Beale admitted that he thought another run in the yellow jumper would never happen, but with the return of a number of other overseas-based veterans, the former Waratahs fly half finds himself in the reckoning again. With Cooper’s absence, James O’Connor moves back into the starting flyhalf, Beale’s immediate boost of energy to the squad earning him a spot on the bench as cover. Elsewhere, Rory Arnold also returns from the international wilderness to resume his locking partnership with Izzack Rodda in the second row, the first time that both have linked up in an Australian jersey since the team’s dismal exit at the hands of England during the 2019 World Cup. There’s also an alteration at fullback, Reece Hodge’s injury against Japan in their first test of the Autumn period ruling him out of action, forcing Andrew Kellaway to fill in with a move off the wing, and paving the way for Jordan Petaia’s start on the left wing.
Traditionally, Murrayfield has been a happy hunting ground for those in the gold and green, but their last visit to the ground ended in a nightmare, Scotland showing up the Michael Cheika coached Wallabies team with a 53-24 spanking back in 2017. Prior to that, Australia had put together three consecutive test wins at Murrayfield, but times have changed, and Scotland only look to have grown in strength since their last meeting. Backed by some impressive showings in the 2021 Six Nations, Gregor Townsend continued his nation’s positive form with a 60-14 victory over a depleted Tongan side to kickstart the Autumn Nations Series. While such a win was expected, a number of youngsters came to the party last weekend, Kyle Stean, Rufus McLean, and Blair Kinghorn, all providing fireworks in a thrashing. With the return of their best players following club commitments though, it’s back to full strength for the Scots and only Steyn is kept of the above mentioned, filling up a cover spot on the bench. The front row remains unchanged, Pierre Schoeman keeping his place after an impressive debut against the Ikale Tahi, but there’s an all-new second row with Sam Skinner and Ben Gilchrist pairing up. Finn Russell also returns to the starting side, renewing his imperious partnership in the halves with Ali Price, while Stuart Hogg pushes Darcy Graham back out to the wing. Of all the test footy being played, this one looms as the toughest to call, testament to Scotland’s much improved form under Townsend over the past year. The Wallabies have been hit with controversy over the past few weeks, however remain right in the hunt, and may have just enough in the tank to grind out victory.
Prediction: Australia by 4
England vs Tonga - Twickenham, London
Another grand spanking lies in wait for Tonga when they meet England at Twickenham on Saturday afternoon. With just a single win in 2021, coming against the Cook Islands in World Cup Qualifying, the Ikale Tahi have been mauled by New Zealand, Samoa, and Scotland over the course of the season. It doesn’t promise to get any better for them on Saturday though, despite the return of a number of their key men. Led by caretaker Grant Doorey and a makeshift coaching team in the absence of Toutai Kefu, just piecing together enough men for the tour proved enough of a challenge. With another mis-match looming, talk of eligibility laws in international rugby sprung to the helm in the build up once more, talk that finally appeared to spring World Rugby into action. Later in the month, the sport’s governing body is now due to meet for a discussion regarding the issue, with a vote to be made on whether players will have the availability to play for another nation in their international career. Currently, it’s an action that can only be performed by playing in an Olympic qualifying tournament, one in which former All Black Malakai Fekitoa took, and Wallaby Lopeti Timani joined him in. While injury has denied Fekitoa the chance to make his much anticipated return to the test arena for Tonga, Timani will do just that at blindside on Saturday. Alongside the former Australian international, Solomone Kata will also make his test debut, the former Mate Ma’a Tonga and NZ Warriors representative lining up on the wing upon his switch from league to union.
But while the Tongans have bolstered their stocks, the English side that Eddie Jones named on Thursday showed little mercy. Many expected the former Australian and Japanese helmsman to give some of his less-experienced men a chance against the Ikale Tahi with two massive tests against Australia and South Africa to come, but Jones has done anything but. A niggling injury for Marcus Smith (obtained in training) means Owen Farrell resumes his role in the ten jumper. The flyhalf’s chances appear to have been hampered on the eve of the test match though, a positive COVID test forcing Farrell into isolation and leaving his spot in the side on knife’s edge. In the case that he doesn’t grace the pitch on Saturday, it’s likely that Smith will have to be pushed into the starting role despite his own concerns. Elsewhere, there are starts for Ben Youngs, Tom Curry, Courtney Lawes, and Jamie George, whilst Manu Tuilagi also returns to the international fold following a stint away. With such an abundance of experience all across the pitch, it appears the only place where Jones has experimented is in the back three, Adam Radwan and Freddie Steward coming in for Anthony Watson and Elliot Daly. Only the margin of victory remains a mystery in this one, England with more than enough to win by sixty or more.
Prediction: England by 60
Ireland vs Japan - Aviva Stadium, Dublin
A fixture that has become synonymous with one of the World Cups’s greatest upsets, Ireland and Japan will meet for the second time since that clash in Shizuoka when they butt heads again in Dublin on Saturday. The Irish have already tasted victory and a sweet piece of revenge with their 39-31 win over the same opposition back in June. However, with their Lions stars back in camp and raring to go, the hosts will be looking for something a little more routine as they continue to build up to a massive test match with New Zealand. Saturday afternoon will be one of huge significance for Jonathan Sexton, the legendary flyhalf set to bring a century of caps when he takes to the field. A true stalwart of the game in Ireland, Sexton is likely to be looking for some consistent form across this contest and the Autumn tests to come, if he decides to stay on for the 2023 World Cup.
Whilst Andy Farrell does have a near full strength side to call upon, he’s opted to experiment a little, once more with November 13ths test against the All Blacks in mind. James Lowe will get the chance to stake a claim for a start against some of his former teammates when he runs out on the right wing this weekend, ahead of the experienced Keith Earls. Jamison Gibson-Park also starts on Saturday, Connor Murray reduced to limited time off the bench, whilst Peter O’Mahony is benched too, Caelen Doris given some time in the back row.
As for Japan, they came close to pulling off another upset when falling just nine points short of the Wallabies two weeks ago. That will have instilled some faith in Jamie Joseph’s team, particularly given they were without leaders Michael Leitch and Kotaro Matsuhima. The fullback returns this weekend in one of three changes, but Leitch continues his stint on the sideline, monitoring his body cautiously as he looks to build towards the 2023 World Cup. Expect the ‘Brave Blossoms’ to give another impressive account of themselves, but it should be that Ireland have enough in the bag to secure back-to-back victories over Japan in 2021.
Prediction: Ireland by 15
France vs Argentina - Stade De France, Paris
Perhaps the test match that has flown under the radar this weekend, France and Argentina will renew their storied rivalry at the Stade De France on Saturday night. With just two victories in 2021 (Romania and a depleted Welsh outfit), and a winless Rugby Championship campaign, the Pumas are enduring one of their toughest seasons in recent years. This is a contest they always enjoy though, famous for picking up consecutive victories over France on this same pitch during their infamous 2007 World Cup run.
With the return of Thomas Cubelli from a hand injury, Argentina will be bolstered in the halves, the veteran set to suit up with Santiago Carreras at flyhalf. Pablo Matera also makes his return, following the dramatic controversy that saw him stuck in another state for the Pumas final Rugby Championship test with the Wallabies. While some key men return, a number also depart. Rodrigo Bruni, Matias Alemanno, Facundo Gigena, and Jim Cruz Malia, will all miss the Autumn series through injury, while Nicolas Sanchez remains a doubt, but is hopeful for a return at some point across the campaign.
The big talking point surrounding this contest is the start of all four of Les Bleus key dictators, Antione Dupont getting the chance to suit up alongside Matthieu Jalibert, Romain Ntamack, and Melvyn Jaminet. It marks the first time that Fabian Galthie has been able to fit all four into his starting team, testament to the competitiveness in the sides backline. Whilst those four men will receive a lot of the attention, Thibaud Flament will also make his international debut, partnering Paul Willemse in the second row. With a near full-strength side gearing up to take on Mario Ledesma’s outfit on Sunday, only one result looks on the cards. Argentina could certainly come close if they pry their way into the contest, but this French side is in fine nick at the moment, and should prove too much.
Prediction: France by 15
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