On paper, this weekend’s test pits the Rugby Championship victors against the Six Nations champions. With the best from either hemisphere set to go head to head inside a jam-packed Millennium Stadium, you’d think that we’d be expecting an intense, tight, and high-octane contest right? Not quite so. Once more the All Blacks will run out onto the paddock to face a severely depleted test side, this time in the form of the Welsh. Whilst they should pose far more of a threat compared to the USA, and keep the scoreline much closer, you still sense there is another walk in the park brewing for the world’s most storied team. Not since 1953 have Wales defeated the All Blacks, doubling as only one of three such results. In that sixty-eight year gap, New Zealand have accumulated thirty-one straight successes, with Wayne Pivac’s side unlikely to break that drought this weekend.
Missing their British and Irish Lions stars and an added handy contingent who ply their trade in England and France, many have scrutinized the Welsh rugby body for holding this test in the first place. And as it did last week, that question has the same answer. This weekend’s test match in Cardiff will build on the All Blacks brand once more, whilst also generating millions in various other sponsorship deals and viewing numbers. Credit must be given to the home fans though, for it sounds as if a buoyant and sold out crowd will greet both sides despite the apparent gap in class. For all it’s worth, such an atmosphere may even slightly bridge that gap, something Ian Foster and his crew will have to take into account in the build-up.
In contrast to the team sent out to make mincemeat of the USA, the fifteen men that run out onto the Millennium Stadium may be Ian Foster’s best at hand. With an Italian drubbing also looming (yet another in a tour that could be labelled as rather friendly for those in black), the coach may see this as his best chance to give his starting side some gametime ahead of what appear to be more challenging tests against Ireland and France to close the tour. With that in mind, we’ll probably see a fair few changes.
It’s likely that Brodie Retallick will return to the fray, reconnecting with Sam Whitelock in the second row following the Cantabrians run of injuries. With the reinstatement of their experienced locking combination, expect the visitors to regain some more go forward around the pack. One of the tougher selection calls ahead of this weekend’s test, revolves around former captain Sam Cane. Following his six month stint on the sideline, the flanker was re-introduced to the test arena with a solid, yet uninspiring run off the bench against the Eagles. He didn’t quite look up to shape in Washington, even admitting that himself, and as such may be given another run off the bench as he continues to ease into test footy.
The backline should follow the same route of rotation, with Anton Lienert-Brown, Rieko Ioane, Jordie Barrett, and Sevu Reece all expected to suit back up in the black jumper. That crucial flyhalf position comes under a question mark again here though, with Richie Mo’unga stepping back into the frame following an injury that kept him out for the majority of the Rugby Championship. Mo’unga was excellent against a significantly lower level of opposition last weekend, but Beauden Barrett has deputised well in his absence and closed the gap back up with such performances. The other position in the halves is also up for grabs, with Brad Weber appearing to be a nose ahead. You probably would’ve made TJ Perenara a deadset favorite just a few weeks back, but Weber has impressed with his cameos, and the Hurricanes halfback put out a rusty display in the tour opener. Plenty to ponder for Foster and his staff, as they look to ensure their main men are well rested for the tour’s final two tests, but also carrying plenty of gametime under their belts.
COVID-19 has reminded the rugby world of its presence in the build-up to this test, highlighting the risks of such an event and the immense organisation that has and will go into it. Preparing to suit up against a number of his former Hurricanes peers, Wilis Halaholo received the worst news possible when ruled out of proceedings following a positive COVID test. Primed for a test start in the midfield, Haloholo would’ve been relishing the chance to face his country of birth. That won’t be the case though, and as such Wayne Pivac will have to delve deeper into his stocks to find a replacement.
The former Auckland coach does have a trump card though. After two years away from the game following a brutal achilles injury just before the 2019 World Cup, Gareth Anscombe is preparing for his much awaited return to the Welsh jumper. In the absence of the twenty-seven test flyhalf, Anscombe has lost his starting place to Dan Biggar, whilst Callum Sheedy has also proven a handy deputy off the bench. But with both men missing this weekend, this test against New Zealand serves as a brilliant chance to set about earning back that position.
Before Wales and New Zealand take to the field, Scotland and Tonga would’ve already kicked off the Autumn Nations Series at Murrayfield. As again this test also falls outside the international window, both teams won’t have their best men to call upon. That’ll suit Gregor Tonwsend to a tee though, with the ability for a fair few uncapped players to step up to the plate ahead of the nation’s more pressing fixtures. Who is selected in the flyhalf jumper will be of interest again, (as it is in almost every test match in this day and age). It appears Ross Thompson will make his international debut in the pivot role, however Blair Kinghorn stands a potent challenger should Townsend choose to go for someone with a little more experience. Focus will also be on Sione Tuipolotu and Pierre Schoeman, both having recently committed their international status to Scotland and ready for a first cap.
When it comes to Tonga though, things are a little more complex. Following a pretty dreary June/July campaign in which the Ikale Tahi were largely disappointing, their issues have been compounded with the unavailability of most of their Australian and New Zealand based players, alongside Toutai Kefu. The head coach and his family were the victim of a horrific property invasion just a few months ago, and as such has felt it would be best to remain at home while he continues to recover. A massive motivator for his squad, Kefu’s absence will be a huge loss. Grant Doorey will be looking to mend that gap in the meantime though, the former Italian and Blues assistant coach set to lead the team into battle across the tour alongside John McKee, Richie Rees, and Jimmy Duffy. These next few tests also offer Tonga the chance to get back in touch with some of the European based players, most of whom missed their World Cup Qualifying fixtures earlier in the year. Whilst it will be a relatively new group, and may struggle to make up the numbers in Edinburgh this weekend, such a contest broods the chance for many to push a case for themselves as the World Cup begins to draw ever nearer. Don’t get me wrong, Scotland should run out convincing victors on Saturday afternoon, but they’ll be wary of slipping up, particularly given they suffered an embarrassing defeat at Aberdeen to the Ikale Tahi in 2012.
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